1 hour ago, extmenace said:
Guys who show they can rush the passer get paid. Being in the perfect position vs being offered a different role on a new team that pays more money are two different things. Lets be honest here, the system here under uses DE's regardless. While I am not saying huff is in the same class of player, TJ watt led the NFL in sacks where he averaged 1 sack for every 49 snaps he played. Hendrickson 1 per 42 snaps. Josh Allen 1 sack for every 50 snaps. K Mack 1 for every 54. D. Hunter 1 sack for every 61 snaps. Those were your top 5 players in sacks this year.Huff averaged 1 sack per 48 plays. He's right in that range. He only played 480 total snaps while all the other guys mentioned played 780-1000+ snaps. Give huff 750-800 snaps at his current rate and hes easily a 15-16+ sack guy. My point being, teams will project bigger sack numbers with the uptick in usage and roll the dice on him. Throw him on a team with a strong offense that can put him on the field more in ideal situations and you could easily project him to be even more productive. The 13-15 range probably isn't realistic. Hes going to get paid because at least one or two teams will fall in love with the upside. Because this team drafted two DE's in the first round in the last 2 drafts, this team really can't justify getting into the bidding war. If Huff gets to the open market, this team will not be able to afford him.
This is the problem with rattling off statistics without context.
TJ Watt et al averaging 1 sack every 49 snaps carries a bit more weight to it when he's on the field for the 50% of snaps where it's a running play. So if about half Watt's snaps are on rushing/passing, then it's 1 sack every ~25 pass snaps.
Say only 10-20% of Huff's snaps are against runs. If he's getting 1 sack er 48 plays then that translates to what,1 sack every ~40-42 pass snaps?
I don't know what their pass:run snap ratios are - tbh this is the kind of thing pff is good for but I don't have access to someone's account anymore - but it's probably not that far off.
So yeah 1 per 40 pass snaps is still pretty good, and he's therefore a worthwhile player to have, but once you break it down by sacks per pass snap you see even in his disproportionate career year he's been nowhere near the edge rusher caliber of Watt, Allen, Mack, Hunter, etc.
Therefore it's not as simple as "Oh, of course if you give him 50% more snaps and he'll get 50% more sacks. Nope. Give him 50% more snaps and maybe he'll get just 1 more sack, because 80% of those extra snaps will be running downs where there are no sack opportunities. That's aside from the reality that he won't have such fresh legs going against 2nd-half exhausted RTs playing every single snap, and so rarely has to worry about staying in his lane until he realizes it's not a handoff, so maybe he wouldn't have gotten all 10 that he did; ergo he may not have any more sacks at all with 300 more total snaps.
He is not in their league, even as a pass rusher -- at least not thus far in his career. Plus he's not been a particularly good run defender. I'd like him back, but he's not been a situational player because his career defensive coaches are too benighted to see he should be on the field all the time. Could very well be they were using him just right.
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